Global freighter
fleet will double in number of airplanes
SEATTLE, July 27, 2006 – The global air cargo market
will continue its growth patterns of the past few years,
with strong 20-year growth, according to the Current
Market Outlook (CMO) 2006 from the Boeing Company [NYSE:
BA]. This pattern will lead to a doubling of the world
freighter fleet from 1,789 to 3,563 airplanes, both
numbers slightly up from the previous forecast.
This growth, accounting for expected airplane retirements
of 1,209 airplanes, will result in a total of 2,983
airplanes added to the freighter fleet by 2025, according
to the annual CMO, which was released earlier this month
prior to the Farnborough Air Show.
“Relatively stable total fleet numbers over the past
five years are a bit misleading since strong deliveries
have been offset by a roughly equal number of
retirements,” said Jim Edgar, regional director,
Cargo Marketing for Asia. “Rising fuel prices apply
replacement pressure on older inefficient fleets,
contributing to unprecedented freighter interest while we
experience minimal negative impact upon traffic
levels.”
Most of these additions – nearly 62 percent –
will be in the widebody category (medium widebody plus
large freighters). Widebody freighters with a capacity of
40 tons or more will increase in share from 50 percent of
the current fleet to 64 percent of the 2025 fleet.
Consequently, there will be an increase in overall
average freighter airplane payload. These findings are
consistent with prior years’ forecasts.
“The total number of airplanes in the freighter
fleet forecast is only slightly higher than last
year’s totals,” said Edgar. “However, the
move to large freighters is already taking hold as the
2005 fleet is only 50 percent standard-body freighters,
versus 53 percent for the same segment in 2004. The
underlying trend towards accelerated widebody growth,
encompassing such airplanes as the 747 freighter family
and the 777 Freighter, is masked by this retirement of
older standard-body freighters.”
Standard-body freighters are defined in the forecast as
having less than 50 tons capacity and the body width of
single-aisle passenger airplanes. The share of these
freighters will decrease from 50 percent to 36 percent
over the next two decades. In many cases, operators such
as express carriers prefer medium widebodies as a
replacement for retiring standard-body freighters.
Freighters, as a share of the global jetliner fleet, will
remain at about 10 percent during the forecast period,
and by 2025, freighters of all sizes will provide more
than half of the world’s total air cargo capacity, a
slight increase from today and consistent with last
year’s forecast.
Three-quarters of the freighter fleet additions will come
from modified passenger and combi airplanes. The
remaining airplanes entering the fleet, about 766, will
be new-production freighters. Although new airplanes will
make up a minority of the total world freighter fleet,
they dominate the large-size category (widebody
freighters of more than 80 tons capacity) with many
airlines preferring their technical advantages,
reliability, and fuel efficiency. The value of all new
freighters totals $169 billion in current U.S. dollars.
In 2005, Boeing received a record 113 firm orders for
production and converted freighters and brought to market
two new production freighters – the 777F and 747-8F.
Currently, Boeing provides more than 90 percent of the
world's freighter capacity. This percentage is expected
to remain stable, owing to the preference for larger
Boeing production and converted airplanes. Boeing offers
a complete family of production freighter airplanes,
including 747-8F, 747-400F, 777F, 767F and 737-700C
(convertible). In addition, Boeing offers Boeing
Converted Freighters (BCF) – 747-400BCF or
767-300BCF, as well as an MD-11 Freighter conversion
program and 757-200 and 767-200 Special Freighters
through proprietary data licensees.
The Current Market Outlook is available on the company's
Web site.
Boeing will issue a more detailed forecast – World
Air Cargo Forecast 2006/2007 – at the 2006
International Air Cargo Forum and Exposition in Calgary,
Alberta, Canada, in September.
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